Did the earthquake oracle really know about the Kahramanmaraş earthquake?

Dutchman who allegedly predicted the earthquake a few days ago Frank Hoogerbeets at the center of the discussions. In fact, many news sites once again ‘earthquake prophet’ comparisons were made.

The reason for these ascriptions is that Hoogerbeets, who introduced himself as a researcher and planetary geometry expert, tweeted on February 3, “Sooner or later, in this region (Turkey’s South-Central region, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon) there will be an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5″.

After this tweet, comments were made that Hoogerbeets predicted the earthquake. So much so that his biography was published on many sites.

Hoogerbeets, which describes itself as a research institute “for monitoring the geometry between celestial bodies related to seismic activity” Solar System Geometry SurveyHe says he is a researcher in . With thousands of followers on his channel and regularly updated website Frank Hoogerbeets He gives the impression of being a real seismologist.

But a seismologist is not a geologist. He does not have any academic title.

According to scientists, the method Hoogerbeets says he uses has nothing to do with these branches of science. He also describes himself as an earthquake enthusiast.

Hoogerbeets based an apocalyptic video on Mars and Uranus, which he predicted would be an earthquake of “world-changing magnitude” on December 11 or 12, 2015. After about 3 years; 21-25 December 2018It was claimed that there would be an earthquake of about 8 magnitude in . When these predictions did not hold, he became the subject of ridicule on social media.

Australian scientist at the time Bryan Gaenslerhad said that Hoogerbeets’ theory had no value.

HoogerbeetsWhy was the name of the earthquake predictor? So did he really know about the earthquake in Turkey?

In fact, the reason is obvious, as can be seen from the examples above. Hoogerbeets and others like him take too much guesswork. Dozens of wrong guesses don’t catch anyone’s attention. However, when there is a prediction that seems to be correct, it spreads very quickly.

IndependentAccording to the news of , Hoogerbeets and its inconsistent predictions had previously come to the fore in different countries.

San Diego’daki University of CaliforniaDuncan Agnew, professor of geophysics who teaches at the University of Chicago, said in a 2017 statement that Hoogerbeets’ predictions are often very vague:

“The estimated duration of the tremors he stated covers about half of a month. The intensity of the possible earthquakes he voiced goes down to 6. There is one of these in a place almost every day,” he said.

Agnew and according to colleagues HoogerbeetsIn order for ‘s earthquake predictions to be correct, he must first prove his method.

Agnew continues: To prove that his method makes any sense, he needs to show that there are more earthquakes in the time intervals he predicts than at any other time.

on this subject Evolution Treeearlier in There was an article titled How Can People Like Lin Predict Earthquakes? Evolution Tree the author Samet AtdagAccording to , a few guesses that are supposed to hold in such situations bring fame to the person in question. Atdağ attributes the situation to selective perception:

“For example, those who fall for the sophistication called Sniper Sophistry focus on what is similar from a lot of data and ignore what is different. As Lin makes lots of guesses and only those who get it are popularized by social media feedback loops, it’s as if they really had the right guesses.” is detected.

Lin’in “correct prediction and victory” What he did in his announced predictions is Tweezing Sophistry. In other words, focusing only on the predictions that are interesting and ignoring the ones that don’t. Even those who follow closely emphasize that it deletes their erroneous predictions retrospectively and increases the probability of random hits with new predictions non-stop.”

Completely coincidence

The last event, namely the comments by Hoogerbeets that he knew about the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, also attracted the attention of Newsweek.

in the Newsweek report US Geological Survey CenterHe says there is no way to predict the time and date of an earthquake.

Earthquakes are unpredictable

Assistant coordinator for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program William Barnhart “Earthquakes are not a predictable phenomenon. No one can accurately predict the location, magnitude, and timing of an earthquake,” he says.

Stating that Hoogerbeets’ predictions coincidentally preceded a major earthquake sequence, Barnhartsaid that the region is a seismically active region known for earthquakes, and continued: The suggestion that earthquakes occur in response to planetary alignments or other solar system phenomena has no accepted scientific value at present.

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