Less than half a year is left for the election, which will be a turning point for Turkey. As of this date, Thrace will go down to the political field and ask the citizens about the color of the game. This journey, which we will start from Çorlu, will continue by reaching all over Thrace. In this meticulous study that will continue until the election, we will measure the support to be given to the parties with the “Square Counter”. With “Human Landscapes”, we will present sections from the people of our country, who are the color of the street.
Our question is clear; “Which party would you vote for if there was an election this Sunday?” we ask. In a country like Turkey, it is quite natural to answer this question through leader profiles. Because in this geography, politics has been done for many years not for social benefit, but with the expectation of personal gain.
The introduction to this review article, which was written for the first trend survey we started from Çorlu, contains notes that will shed light on the next trend surveys. In this context, you can read the general situations that will apply to other locales in this context.
The video about the field work we did in Çorlu behind the camera is “undecided, no comment, none, etc. The “GRAY” area that expresses it is actually much larger than you think. Even people who we think may be opposition or pro-government, that is, always a political party from a hundred meters away, can avoid expressing their views by changing their marching route when they see the camera and microphone.
THE GRAY AREA HAS THREE SEPARATE SECTIONS
DARK GREY: This area is definitely made up of those who are resentful of the political establishment. Even if they were to vote at the last moment by saying “the best of the worst”, they are made up of those who are upset with our bad luck, are now very tired and, so to speak, have come to the point where they lose their joy of life.
GRİ: They are really indecisive. They are very sincere in declaring this. They really have no clarity on where they should vote. They seem eager to be convinced if Tansu Çiller, who will take to the streets and steal their hearts by saying “two keys for everyone”, is an opposing option. One of our aunts is already expressing this clearly: “Let’s see what will happen to the pension increase? We will vote accordingly.”
LIGHT GREY: It consists of those who do not necessarily or naively shyly reveal the color of the game. Most of them are afraid of their job (officer, manager, etc.). Those in this area are worried that if they openly declare their oppositional identity, something will happen to them or those around them.
All right, are they GRAY who change their direction when they see the camera and microphone? No, we can define them as:
BLACK: In fact, they are even clearer than those that show the color of the game. They have been ill-fated with the game of democracy in our country, which has turned into a fallacy. Maybe they’re too fed up to vote for sure; maybe they are so sharpened that they greedily cling to the ballot box on election day. They are too ambitious to let anyone change their move no matter the outcome. It is generally accepted that a small fraction of this group may be pro-government. Because we will explain why this is the case when we discuss the AK Party due to the conjuncture.
LOOKING AT THE PARTIES FROM ÇORLU SUBJECT
CHP: “We are six brothers, we have 75 votes. Except for the fanatical CHP citizen, who jumped in front of the camera with hope, saying, “All to the CHP…”, even the most determined ones display a restrained attitude. Even among those most determined, there are still so many people trying to stay in LIGHT GRAY… It must be a special talent not to be able to use such a wide audience, each of whom is almost intellectually equipped. We’re talking about organic twitter users, who are tens of times more than the troll armies on Twitter. The CHP has a treasure at hand. But he can’t use it. This large audience turns into a cacophony at the end of the day. When you go to the field, you understand better how all units, starting from the CHP Headquarters to the provincial and district organizations, cannot use this silent power, this huge mass at their disposal. How Does? Looking at the next party electorate…
AK Party: They are very clear. They instantly stick the answer: “Of course, AK Party, of course Erdogan!” They don’t think it’s something to discuss. That’s why we think that their ratio in the BLACK section is very low. They openly and proudly declare their support for the AK Party, which they have been voting for for years, especially because they consider the announcement of the minimum wage as 8,500 lira as an economic victory. Those who say they will vote for the AK Party have full confidence in themselves; Also, the feelings of solidarity and morale are high. Three-fours (with headscarves or mixed) women’s groups, holding each other’s arms, are advancing by storming the city square, like a painting of this spirit of solidarity. One of the most concrete factors keeping this unity atmosphere alive is the fear of losing 20 years of power; At first glance, a daredevil who will do anything not to lose is perceived at first glance.
GOOD Party: They are clearly in third place, as nationwide. Don’t let this fact deceive you. The formation of this result in such a short time in the political history of Turkey, without any objective great power (media, capital, tradition, etc.) behind it, can be explained as achieving the impossible, so to speak. They are a center that can get at least half of the votes of the AK Party, which will completely disintegrate after Erdoğan. If Akşener listens to the conscience of men with droopy mustaches, not the commonplace words, it can make the party sit in the center. So much so that “I will vote for the GOOD Party.” The friend next to the citizen, who says, turns to the camera and says, “Ask me, I will vote for HDP too.” Seeing this scene, he said that the IYI Party’s attempt to beat the HDP would not add anything to the current vote potential; On the contrary, it is quite easy to realize that it will lose votes to the ultranationalist bloc that has already narrowed enough.
HDP: Undoubtedly, we are talking about a formation that has an important share in the LIGHT GRAY audience. Some researchers even claim that 10 percent of the HDP mass hides itself within the AK Party. However, HDP voters act a little more comfortably in a democratic place like Çorlu. Those who say, “I will vote for HDP”, say their words very briefly and boldly. It is not difficult to guess the source of this courage: Demirtaş. It does not seem possible anymore to squeeze the Kurdish political movement, which broke the ten percent threshold, into Imrali or Qandil. They see themselves as the most legitimate political line, as they demand that the guns be silenced forever. That’s why, even if they get scolded from Kandil on the one hand and from the state on the other, they are growing day by day.
MHP: From what we observed on the field, they are in really bad condition. If it weren’t for the supporters who would vote for the old photos of him in the military and youth years, they would have disappeared from the political scene. The results on the field show just that. Moreover, they are in this state when they are the junior partner and major stakeholder of the government. In other words, if the blessings of the government go away after six months and if God gives Bahçeli a long life, it may not even be possible for them to remain as a signage party in Thrace.
OTHERS: During our trend survey in Çorlu, not a single person said that they would vote for any of the other four parties of the Six Table or their leader. Populist policies such as the Victory Party and the Homeland Party seem to find buyers, albeit small ones. Apart from that, “Who will you vote for?” People who answer the question “Left” live in Thrace. Although the socialist parties failed to write these votes to their own numbers in this process…
CONCLUSION: IF CHP CAN DOWNLOAD TO THE SURROUNDINGS, IT WOULD EVEN FEEL 5 IN 8
Çorlu’s average stands in front of us as an important example as it can give us the overall Tekirdağ ratio proportionally. The Republican People’s Party has the potential to recruit five of the eight deputies if it conducts a door-to-door work. However, there is currently no tidy party management. The AK Party is much more organized and dynamic than the CHP administrators see, and it is advancing successfully in protecting the area they previously occupied. At least he’s resisting so as not to lose space.
Since it is a very sensitive issue, we will not give an example openly, but social assistance and general service quality have a great role in this. The slow action of CHP municipalities on this issue in Tekirdağ is undoubtedly a handicap for the party. For example, instead of a TESKI that will make the citizens smile with its qualified employees, a TESKI, which some self-appointed CHP members have sworn to turn into a farm, stands before us as the first thing to eat the head of the fifth-ranked deputy candidate. It is a matter of curiosity that those responsible for this will be nominated as deputy candidates. Another curiosity is those responsible… Never mind, we’ll talk about it after the deputies’ ranks are announced. Even if we are faced with a shock like three deputies after the election, we say, “That was the reason”.
BLACK AND WHITE SPACE COLORING SKILL
To summarize the table:
DARK GRAY: No AK Party
GRAY: One third of the AK Party
LIGHT GRAY: No AK Party
BLACK: AK Party one-tenth
So… The overwhelming majority of the black and white picture does not think of voting for the AK Party. CHP organizations should explain that social benefits will not be cut without leaving a single door, we did not press a single hand, but on the contrary, it will increase many times with practices such as Family Insurance. Of course they do! But they tell themselves. Just like it has been for years… In this context, the chance of the junior members of the Six Tables to dominate the GRAY areas is no doubt clear from yesterday.
Not: After this general introduction, we will continue our journey in the center of Kırklareli, our next stop. This introduction will shed light on our journey as a bedside note.