Kemal Özkiraz, owner of Eurasia Research, shared in his last program the number of deputies that can be elected in each province according to the votes of the parties. According to the simulation made by a public official using artificial intelligence based on the voting rates of the parties in November, the CHP gets 46.4%, the AK Party 22.5% and the IYI Party 15.7% in Tekirdağ.
According to the simulation, it was stated that the CHP won 4, the AK Party 2 and the IYI Party 1 deputies. However, the number of deputies that Tekirdağ would issue increased from 7 to 8 as the population increased. Therefore, in this important simulation carried out with artificial intelligence, an error stands out as the number of deputies to be issued by the provinces is calculated according to the previous elections.
Well, what would be the situation according to 8 deputies in Tekirdağ?
According to the default vote rates, CHP can elect 5, AK Party 2 and IYI Party 1 deputies. In the simulations published in April 2022, Trakya Politik revealed how many deputies each party could win, with different variations. You can check the related news and graphics at the link below:
The eighth proxy is the golden proxy
According to the 7 attorney’s account, the result published by Kemal Özkiraz is basically a guaranteed result by coincidence. How Does? Because when all possibilities are taken into account, the guaranteed result will be 4 MPs from the CHP, 2 from the AK Party and 1 from the IYI Party.
It remains unclear who will take the eighth deputy.
What is the status of the parties and what is the reality on the field?
As you know, Thrace takes the pulse of the citizens by going down to the political field. Accordingly, the Justice and Development Party continues to hold the bone voters, contrary to popular belief. The CHP, which has changed in the provincial administration, takes care to be on the street, but the CHP carries out work in a way that explains itself to its own voters. The performance of the IYI Party is mostly based on Akşener’s charisma. If HDP is elected from the TYPE lists, it can increase its vote from 5 percent to 7-8 percent. The assassination of Sinan Ates and the rise of the Zafer Party with radical rhetoric brings the MHP down to its lowest level in its history.
Success will be your golden proxy field
In this context, it is the impression of Trakya Politik from the field that an AK Party that will increase the delivery of social assistance to poor neighborhoods will get the third deputy by taking the gold representative. The fact that the provincial administration of the Republican People’s Party remains in 4 deputies in this conjuncture is considered a failure. Because, according to the percentage data announced by Özkiraz, CHP can have 5 deputies. It is possible for the IYI Party to get the gold deputy, by increasing its votes above the 19% band. It is possible to get the gold proxy from the AK Party with the CHP’s work in the suburbs or Akşener’s special landing in Tekirdağ.
There is another possibility
Especially if the MHP and the AK Party, whose vote rate has become exhausted, enter the elections from the same list, it may even backfire. However, if the Six Tables are elected with a single list, it may be possible to guarantee 6 deputies. Let’s give the bomb in Election Toto. Increasing its votes by 1-2 points in each election, HDP received 6.5% of the votes from Tekirdağ in the last election. If the Labor and Freedom Alliance, which entered the elections in Tekirdağ from the TİP lists and can win the votes of the Thracian leftists (especially the CHP members on the left wing), which it will show in the first place, it can get the gold proxy if it exceeds 10 percent.
What is failure?
The fact that the IYI Party remains in one deputy is not a failure in this picture. The fact that CHP could not get the fifth deputy can be considered as a failure. However, the AK Party’s remaining in 2 deputies is definitely a failure. In short, the AK Party, which cannot double the social benefits, the CHP provincial administration, which cannot convince the undecided voters and the suburbs, the IYI Party central administration, which cannot convey Akşener’s charisma to the right voters, or the HDP, which cannot target a deputy in Tekirdağ with the first-ranked left candidate, are doomed to failure. The golden proxy is in the middle. The party that will get the gold deputy is the closest candidate to become the main actor in Turkish politics. The bill to be cut to other structures that cannot afford it must be very heavy.
Note: When the aforementioned simulation is done with the average of the polls in 2023 and the correct entry of the number of deputies to be issued by the provinces, it will almost certainly give the distribution of seats in the Assembly after the election.